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Real-Time HEC-HMS Indus River Basin Rainfall-Snowpack-Snowmelt-Runoff
Water Security-Supply-Flood Forecasting Model for Pakistan
Model:
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- Uses Hourly ERA5 ECMWF Climate Data (Temp and Precipitation) as Driving Parameters
- Converts Hourly Precipitation to Snowpack (if temp < 0 c)
- Builds Snowpack using Temperature Index Method
- Melts Snowpack (if temp > 0 c)
- Uses Gridded Mod-Clark UH to Convert Runoff and Snowmelt to River Runoff
- Routes Runoff Downstream Using Muskingum-Cunge Routing Method
- Upper Indus River Basin Calibrated based on Year 2022 Rainfall-Runoff
- Syncing Simulated Snowpack with USACE-USAF Real-Time Satellite-Radar Snow Assessments
- Inflows to Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs are Inputs to Pre-Developed Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs
HEC-ResSim (Reservoir Simulations) to Simulate Reservoir Operations and
Downstream Water-Supply-Irrigation/Hydropower/Flood-Control Reservoir Releases
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- Has Capability to input ECMWF 15-Day Gridded Climate Parameters to Forecast Future Water-Supply and Flooding Conditions
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Incremental Rainfall
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time-Step
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Cumulative Rainfall
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time Step
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Air Temperature
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time Step
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Snow Water Equivalent
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time Step
2022SnowpackPeak and Melt-Then
Begin Accumulation for 2022-2023 Season
Indus River Basin Showing:
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- I Upper Indus Basin (Grid in White) I
- Kabul River Basin Tributary
- Jhelum River Basin Tributary
- Chenab River Basin Tributary
- Glaciers
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Cumulative Rainfall
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time Step
Indus Basin HEC-HMS
Cumulative Rainfall
01Jun2022 to 30Oct2022
4-Hour Time Step
Example Future Climate Scenarios (RCMs and GCMs) "Overlaid" on HEC-HMS Calibrated Rainfall-Snowmelt-Runoff Model
(Part of Climate Risk-Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA))
Fully Calibrated HEC-HMS Rainfall/Snowpack/Snowmelt/Runoff Gridded Temperature-Index Model
For flow locations downstream of Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs, the actual operations of the reservoirs have to be taken into account. There is a Indus River HEC-ResSim Model which has been developed. This model simulations the operation of the two reservoirs for: fall-winter irrigation support in Punjab and Sindh Provinces based on the 1991 Water Accord, dam safety rules, and hydropower generation.
I’ve spent my career working in a wide range of hydrologic settings using a variety of complex hydrologic analyses for numerous water resources projects on some of the largest and complex river systems in the world, including: the Missouri River, the Mississippi River, the Indus River, the Aral Sea, the Amazon River Basin, and the Jordan River. The analyses I’ve specialized in include: rainfall-runoff analysis, statistical analysis, stochastic-autoregressive analyses, and climate resilience. Additionally, on the behalf of the U.S. Government, I’ve been the lead in technology training, transferring water resources technology, and working on shared international water resources benefits for foreign governments: three years in Afghanistan, five years in Pakistan, and five years in Brazil. These following pages represent examples of these projects spread out over several countries.
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